Other predictions can be as simple as following trendlines to their logical conclusion. However the world changes over the next 30 years, it won’t be as a result of more Britons or Americans getting phones. Similarly, smartphone penetration in the west is now as high as it looks likely to go.
The internet is far more entrenched now than it was in 2004, and while its chaotic effect on our lives shows no sign of abating, it is at least predictably unpredictable. If the Guardian missed the advent of the smartphone, despite writing just three years before the launch of the iPhone, how can we possibly do better today, looking 10 times further ahead? The world of 2050 will be unimaginably different in many ways, even if we can safely assume people will still generally have two arms, two legs and an unpleasant smell if they don’t wash for long periods of time.īut there are forces working in our favour. “But if you explain what it does, how much information it provides and where it goes – and that the trade-off is that you don’t have to wait as long in line at the supermarket – then people will take the trade-off.” In fact, over the past decade and a half, the vast majority of people were simply never given the choice to accept the trade-off, and it is increasingly clear that many of them never would have if they had understood what was at risk.
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“There is a loss of privacy that is going to be very difficult for people and we haven’t figured out how to deal with that,” one of Adams’s interviewees admitted, when describing technology in 2020. Photograph: China News Service/VCG via Getty Images Robots are here to stay … an automated production line in China. And through it all is a sense of trust: these changes will be good, and the companies making them well-intentioned. Adams writes about biometric healthcare data being beamed to your doctor’s computer about washing machines that automatically arrange their own servicing based on availability in your “electronic organiser” and about radio-frequency identification (RFID) chips on your clothes that trigger customised adverts or programme your phone based on where you are. The 2004 predictions are, fundamentally, optimistic. But the other missing point is about how society would respond to the changing forces. Forget carrying around a separate MP3 player in the real 2020, people aren’t even carrying separate cameras, wallets or car keys.įailing to foresee the smartphone is an oversight about the progress of technology. After half a century of single-purpose consumer electronics, it was difficult to perceive how all-encompassing a single device could become, but just three years after Adams pubished his piece, the iPhone launched and changed everything. But there was a very specific hole in this prediction: the smartphone. “Gadget lovers could use a single keypad to operate their phone, PDA and MP3 music player,” Adams wrote, “or combine the output of their watch, pager and radio into a single speaker.” The idea of greater convergence and connectivity between personal electronics was correct. If we move on from worrying over details, there are two key points at which the 2020 predictions fall apart: one about tech, the other about society. Happily, Newman proved his own pessimism to be unwarranted: in 2014, he co-founded Oxbotica, which has hopefully solved the problem he mentioned, because it makes and sells driverless car technology to vehicle manufacturers around the world. “Fundamentally, it’s just very difficult to get a robot to tell the difference between a picture of a tree and a real tree,” Paul Newman, then and now a robotics expert at Oxford University, told Adams. “Artificial intelligence brains simply cannot cope with change and unpredictable events,” wrote Adams, explaining why robots would be unlikely to interact with humans any time soon. Technology really has made great leaps and bounds in the past 16 years, nowhere more clearly than AI. Waphan, Wapdam, Wap.But in some ways, the predictions were overly pessimistic.
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